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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 13, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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much watching and so many people watching what happens in tonight's white house meeting, no one will be watching more colorly than ben bar unanimous key. before we go, take a look at the day on wall street. a downer of a day, but off of the worst levels of the session. things did worsen after coming back on the lows of that announcement. 13,170 on the dow. volume on the light side. nasdaq down 21.65. and s&p 500 gave up 900 points together. that do will do it for us. i'll see you tomorrow. "fast money" begins right now. press conference ping-pong. stocks higher, then lower. >> republicans want to solve this problem by getting the spending line down. the president wants to pretend the spending isn't the problem. that's why we don't have an agreement. >> stocks recover, then fall again. >> speaker boehner can't ignore
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the american people forever. at some point, reality should set in. the only question is how much financial stress middle class families and our entire economy will have to endure during this process. >> is this any way to solve the biggest threat to the economy since lehman brothers? "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. back from the brink. from b of a to yahoo! stocks, are suddenly the comeback kids of the fourth quarter. we're separating winners from losers. plus, sell signal. if insiders are heading for the exits, should you be, too? and we're talking real estate and the fiscal cliff with dolly lens. but first, let's get straight to our top story, and that is the haggling in washington, d.c. president obama's meeting with house speaker john boehner this hour.
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john, what should we expect? >> we expect the meeting to last something less than an hour between the speaker and the president of the united states. a republican leadership aide told me the meeting is taking place because a shakeup is required in budget talks, given the inflexibility of the white house. question is going to be, what is that shakeup? the speaker wants and republicans have been the demanding more details from the white house on potential cuts and entitlement programs. the white house has shown no willingness to go further than they've already gone and they are winning this argument in terms of public opinion. so, another possibility for a shakeup is for republicans to some how give ground and we'll see whether that happens on decoupling top tax rates, 98% of american families. we're going to have to see what happens and if we hear from john boehner and president obama after this meeting which will probably only do if some breakthrough occurs. >> all right, john, thank you. keep us posted. we will go back to john in d.c. if any developments do happen here at this point. we mentioned at the top of the show, press conferences between,
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you know, we got boehner and we got reid and where do we get at the end of the day? really nowhere. >> i don't think you can chalk this up to really, you know, the volleys we're talking about that seem quite pathetic and boehner saying he's going back to ohio, you know, come get me if you've got something to say. this stuff is hitting the tape and kind of silly. this is, to me, the market's reaction is just hangover from the fed getting out of the way. if you look at markets right now, we have some major resistant levels and i do think this is a technical call as much as anything. i don't think markets have broken down here, but i think we have a decent place to play right back into 1380 before you have to worry. >> totally agree. i think the market wants to see a selloff with fiscal cliff. you haven't gotten a good flush. every time you're waiting for it, you want to buy, but you don't really get that good flush. >> how -- >> how do you get a good flush? >> let's not go there. my bad. >> i think honestly people are wondering what the heck is a
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good flush? >> it's got to be a 30 handle. >> 30 handle on the s&p. >> exactly. that real mark in the sand has been 1395 in the s&p cash. you want to see it below that to make people feel as if they're getting bang for the buck. >> by the way, we understand that house speaker boehner is on his way to the white house as we speak. >> you know, it's evenly divided. some say we're going to get this deal by year-end. and some say we're not. but the truth is, even if we get a deal, it's a short-term patch. we're still going to get downgraded. >> we're getting a deal or we're not getting a deal? >> gun to my head, i think we're getting a deal. >> you? >> i think we're getting a deal and ill think that it will be last minute like everything in washington. and they won't do what they did with t.a.r.p., which was, let something fade, the market drop to 800 points, i think they learned their lesson from that. >> everybody makes that comparison, though, but do i believe that the markets could see that magnitude of a selloff if a deal does not happen? >> sometimes you need to -- i
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won't say -- >> proper -- >> are you going to go back to the flush metaphor? >> i'm not going -- it's too important a day for me to use my just dopey sophomoric humor. >> anyway. go on. >> yesterday, the market reve e reversed. today, similar type day as to yesterday. you know, i think we are set up for sort of 1390 in the s&p and we'll see what happens. we've been in a very defined range and nothing indicates to me we're going to get out of it. >> just want to make this quick point, melissa, about the t.a.r.p. thing. it's not that we're going to have an 800-point drop, congress is now more sensitized to the fact that -- >> they'll manage the message. >> i believe that the decisions they realize are tied to the market now, so, i don't think they'll make that mistake again. >> speaking of range, real quick, the treasury at 173 on the tenure at the top of the range, which tells you you probably should be selling equities because yields have bounced back up to levels that they can't break through. if they break through, it's a
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big sign for equities to keep the rally going. >> as you see there, bayner h b arrived at the white house. any developments, we will bring you the latest. let's move to trades. that's why we're here, right? this-year-old has been filled with lots of comeback stories, from yahoo! to bank of america. let's get the best back from the brink picks. >> we see the turnaround story with yahoo!, we see marissa working on e-mail and apps, all the things to compete with google. the stock price has been really panning out here. you want to stay above that $19.15 range. i actually bought some today. i needed confirmation with technicals. ill bought it today. first leg. if it comes in, i buy a little bit more. breaks down below 19, i exit the trade. >> and hewlett-packard, what is the scenario here? >> for me, we really got that
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flush when up saw, with their last takeout -- they've had so many m and as that didn't work out. >> yeah. >> now you see the stock oversold. the last time, it's rallied 100% back. guys are looking for this stock to trade in the mid 20s. more or less a tech any come story when it becomes oversold. but the truth is, there's a lot going on here. guy has flagged this -- >> this stock went from $11.80 to where it is right now, even in the $14.50 in a slight selloff today. this is a huge move. again, we are a company that definitely went from just, you know, value enticement to value trap to broken. and, so, how do we not change that dynamic? >> it's the focus from going pc to enterprise software there's guys talking about breakup value of the stock, and, you have to look at, what are they really looking at right now? are they looking at software? that's what we're looking -- >> breakup value imflips there is somebody that could get in to actually enact that breakup and
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right now, they hired goldman sachs to defend themselves against activists -- >> it's not necessarily that they have to do it -- >> it's just the inherent -- >> it's assigning a value on the pieces. and the pieces get you at about $20 a share. >> they did that for a long time with yahoo! and it never worked and yahoo!'s been a good trade recently but sum of the parts -- >> the risk is that you're in the stock too early before there are actual signs -- >> it took a long time for people to realize the value in yahoo! >> if meg can start working on cloud space now, something that dell hasn't been able to do and convert from pc, the stock is a $20 number. >> guy, you're back frr back frk play? >> i think it's netflix. i think technically it's done everything right. we talked about it bottoming out, the big day a few weeks ago. down into the low 50s. this is a stock that overself-s on the down side and overshoots on the up side. and i believe you overlay this with the disney deal and the
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morgan stanley upgrade yesterday and i think netflix is going to, again, surprise a lot of people on the upside. i don't think the company is completely fixed. i still think they have issues. you may see a secondary down the road, but i think the stock is sort of in play here. wouldn't surprise to see it north of 100. >> does the coinstar provide competition? >> it does. and they talked about that, the street talked about it today, the stock was impervious to that announcement. makes you wonder if everybody can win. >> morgan stanley raised the price point -- >> coin star should have trumped more dwan stanley. typically it would have, but that should tell you something. there is a decent short interest and i think company's not fixed entirely, i think the stock might be for the time being. >> tim, you're looking at the financials. >> i think the financials as a sector have the most room to run on the eps fourth quarter story, all the sectors where we've seen earnings contraction, financials
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are going higher. bank of america, it's simply an improved balance sheet. these guys are getting better, so, all of the expectations that they might have to come to market, i think, are falling off the table. more importantly, i think they're getting back to their real earnings growth potential. when you see some of the delinquent mortgages start to fall off, this is a place where people talk abnormalized earnings. but this is not expensive. after a move at .8 times tangible book, price to tangible book, this is a stock that's trading 40% cheap to where it was in 2010 and 2011, so, it's had a big move. it's not expensive. it runs into resistant right around here at 1060. but then you get through here and you run up to 1250. >> it has been overbought, as tim said, so, the pull-back is not a huge pull-back. it comes down 1020 in the stock. that's a big move considering what it's already done. but it's got to stay above $10.11 to be specific. >> some people will make the case that bank of america is a
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housing play because the mortgage lending they do. anthony, this is actually one of your back from the brink picks, as well. >> bank of america, yeah. well, listen, i think the housing environment is going to sit nicely next year and that's going to be terrific for bank of america and all the loans these guys are holding. but another game that we should also focus on is rimm. this is a totally back from the brink story. down at the lows at 6, trading at $13.86 today. the blackberry 10 is beta testing very well. it's a stable operating system and there are ger ya tricks out there like us that will always have a -- >> you do have an iphone next to us. >> i have the iphone as a backup but -- >> backup? >> i'm going to be on this thing as long as it works and i think it's going to. this could be a $20 stock. it's trading at tangible book and they survived it. you'll see the shorts coming out of this thing into the fir quarter next year. >> mike, it looks like you are
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taking a pagerobaron's? >> yeah, taking a look at western digital. i think the bear case in a lot of these storage names is pretty well understood. the desk top area is obviously extremely weak. consumer electronics don't rey lie on disc storage. they are relying on flash. so, that's a potential weakness. and one of the weaknesses might actually be a strength. and that's the cloud. a lot of people are looking at the cloud as one of the reasons why you wouldn't be buying storage. but in fact cloud storage is disc driven, not flash driven. and, of course, that becomes a commodity that people have demand for that is storage. and this is a company that looks pretty cheap. $1.5 billion in net catsh and i trading at four times earnings. just about as much free cash flow versus enterprise value. this is a company, i noticed, the options are not that expensive. one of those places, you have to be careful, there's a spread there, but you might be interested in buying longer dated calls and spreading that as a bullish bet there's been
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some potential upside here. >> a lot of back from the brink plays. let's check in with jackie. she's got a market flash on what is moving right now. >> hey there, melissa. the stock to watch right now is verifone. q-4 herbiearnings after the clo6 cents. the revenues were light but what was troubling but the guy dance for the first quarter. the revenue range, $490 to $500 million. we saw the stock closing, but now down more than 7%. back over to you. >> was this one of your final trades? >> it was. >> it was. >> week and a half ago. i thought it bottomed out. we had flagged, sort of, ebay and payball and , it looked lik had momentum. right where we are right now, if it can manage to hold this, you tomorrow, you need to look at it again. it looked like it got its mojo back, obviously it lost it
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today. coming up next, will it be deal or no deal for best buy? we're setting the record straight in the latest speculation swirling in the troubled retailer. later, think it's just tax cuts and entitlements teetering on the brink? real estate guru will say why one part of the housing market is dealing the effects of no deal in mansion-sized proportions.
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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq market site here in times square. fast or fiction. there will be a deal for best buy. at least according to "the minneapolis star tribune." best buy's ofounder is society o make a bid as soon as this weekend. thomas lee, the reporter that
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broke the story, had this to say about it. take a listen. >> things have changed a bit in terms of the tone between his camp and the company. a few months ago, it was some what adversary y'all when they laid out this process, but under a new ceo, it seems that they're getting along a little bit better. >> he went on to say best buy is open to a bid of about 20 bucks a share, something you probably would not have heard just a few moments ago. so, we ask, fast or fiction, will best buy buy out materialized? tim, what do you say? >> i say no. i say there's a small window in december and if you don't happen, it doesn't happen until august 2013. financing is going to be hard to come by. i don't think the offer comes anywhere near where the bid is. they're wide apart here. >> yeah. fiction. >> fiction. >> sorry, did -- >> well, you said no. >> i asked you something or the other, you just said no, which is not really an answer but we got -- >> i'm in that camp, as well. december 16th is coming up very
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quickly. from what i'm hearing now, from what i'm reading, the financing might not be as available as they thought it was prior. so, i'm in the fiction camp. i know there's a big short interest in this camp. i'd say fiction. >> the wrench in the story is that they're putting in a build as a place holder before the deadline and it will allow them to then put in another bid, a followup bid in january. >> i've not changed from fiction to fact. >> really? >> why? >> he's going to put the bid -- >> why? >> i think he's going to put that in as a place holder. he's telling the news agencies that he's got some financing and i think this thing goes off at 18 to 20 and i think the board is going to do it. but if you were with me on monday, i said fiction. >> don't you think financing will be much more difficult if we go over the fiscal cliff? what are the chances he's going to be able to secure that much? >> i don't. because at the yale ceo conference, they interviewed 20 guys who all said the same thing, and they said it won't
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be. people are going to do their business, eregardless of the government. most people have written off the insanity in the american government and they're going to get this stuff done one way or the other. so, i'm not in the fact camp. >> all right. >> we have a dunking station back here next week, i'll happily -- >> speaking of dunk, this might be a great time for you to bump the question to steve. >> if i'm wrong, i'll jump over the fiscal cliff. >> it would be fiction, right? >> flush would equal fiction. >> you can figure that out. right? >> i wasn't involved in that. move on. >> mike, what are the options markets saying whether or not this deal could happen? >> they might have ramped up the likelihood a little. i don't think they've taken it all the way to the fact camp, otherwise we would see speculative put selling. what we did see, though, was the december 15 and january 15 calls were extremely active and the january 15 strike was actually the one that saw the most
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opening interest. and what we saw there were some buyers paying about 50 cents. that's speculating the stock would be about $15.50. up 10% from here. the way the deal was supposed to be structured, the amount of financing strikes me as speculative at best and i think that's probably how the options traders view it, as well. >> so, fiction. from mike. >> he knows how to play the game. >> all right. >> wait a minute. that's four to one, right? i'm not good at math -- >> how do you count? >> i don't note -- >> use your fingers. >> melissa, where are you on this? >> i'm ingagnostic. i just moderate. >> i included melissa. >> let's move on. >> i want to be known as the contrarian here on the desk. >> a long-term bull is turning caution for 2013. should you be bracing for a selloff next year? let's bring in mark chaikin. it breaks it down to priced volume activity, analyst and
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money manager opinions to determine whether sentiment is bullish or bearish. mark, why turn bearish now in 20 2013. >> the three things that drove the cycle was the presidential election, our markets were undervalued relative to europe and apple. driving our whole consumer technology complex. and all three of those are going to be missing in '13. factor in the fiscal cliff and there's a lot of uncertainty going forward. >> what about the fed? positive buys towards good corp rate earnings and the fact that we're trading at very low multiples over the last five years measured in terms of what could be potential growth. jamie dimon said -- just giving the other point of view. >> in march of 2013, the bull market will be four years old. that's pretty long in the tooth. we all know the liquidity factor from the fed and boosting asset prices, but that's yesterday's news. i think the uncertainty is, the first year of a presidential cycle. lots of areas where the market
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could run into glitches and i think it's a great time to play defense. >> can i correctly assume that the power gauge on apple is negative, in the near term, if you are mentioning that as one factor of being bearish in 2013? >> power gauge is neutral. it's bearish on a lot of other stocks. the stock is down significantly and that's no longer driving the positive market psychology. a big drain. >> let's talk about a particular sector, because it seems like the power gauges are telling you that luxury is a sell going into next year. >> luxury and high end retail. you've got an interesting unknown dichotomy. retail stocks tend to underperform between thanksgiving and christmas, courtesy of the spoke investment group. great study they did. number two, consumer sentiment, very negative. particularly at the high end where the uncertainty over the tax rates next year is greatest. and i think this is a great area to raise cash. >> on luxury, the big thing for me is china's not 25% of the
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global luxury goods market and the u.s. is 20%. china is growing as a luxury buyer. and although their falloff, tiffany's had high profile warnings base and weaker china, they're going to grow % next year and on top of that the following year. how do you call it quilts here? >> the power gauge is my guide here. china retail sales were up 15% recently. that came out of the blue. you have to go with a disciplined approach to the stocks. if the power gauge is bearish, and it's not bearish on all, but if the power gauge is bearish, i think this is a great place to raise cash. >> we're showing charts and the gauges for tiffany as well as coach and they are very l leveraged to china. >> no doubt. >> the negative power gauge there. there is one stock that you brought with you, mark, that is positive in terms of the power gauge, and that is yahoo!, a pick of steve's for a long time. >> i like it for some of the same reasons. but the key here is they are hiring engineers.
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they bought on the air and the reason is they know these engineers from google. they've been terribly underst f understaffed. in 4 1/2 months, she's turned around the psychology at yahoo!. if you talk to people at yahoo! finance, which we do, the psychology within the company has turned around. plus, you've got dan, david and tiger in the stock. goldman out with a recommendation, a target of 24. i would actually buy it under 19, i wouldn't exit the trade if i was an investor. we're talking about investments here, 24 is not going to happen overnight. >> okay, mark, going to leave it there. thank you for coming by. coming up next, a closer look at why insiders are kicking their stocks to the curb and whether you should be following their lead. and later, will the fiscal cliff be the grinch that stole chris has? we're doing some on the ground research to find out how shoppers are dealing with washington grid lock. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving.
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insider selling is surging and a new report insider score says there's been a strong sell within the consumer
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discretionary, health care and technology sectors. ben silverman joins us on the fast line to further break down what he describes as a demonstratable decrease in buying stocks. ben, great to speak with you. >> thank you very having me on. >> we should be clear that these are all parts of 10 b-5 one plans. it's all legal what the insiders are doing. >> well, actually, this is, but you have to make the assumption that insiders are not breaking the law. >> okay. and this is happening at a higher rate than what we would normally see come year end? >> yeah, we have elevated levels. we're not nearing historic levels, but these are strong. it's very comparable in terms of volume and intensity to what we saw in late february and early march this year. which is one the dow moved above 13,000 for the first time since may of '08 and the s&p moved to 800 for the first time in june of '08. >> we showed a full screen of the three companies where you
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are seeing actionable receiving. i'm hoping that you can walk us through hanes brands, for instance, since that's a name we talk about here on this desk, and just walk us through what you saw and why you think it's notable. >> okay, so, we have the chairman and ceo richard noll, he sold $7.7 million in shares on december 6th and 7th. this took his nonoptions holdings down to 31%. so, he still has significant equity in the company, over 477,000 shares. plus he owns, you know, stock options. this, however, was his first sale. he had bought stock back in august of '08 and february of '09, very well-timed buys. he had an average buy price of about $14.40. so, you know, the sale plays into some of the larger issues we're looking at, in that he's sitting on a decent size capital gains from his purchases, but
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he's also selling more than double the amount of shares that rebought. this is out of the blow. this is somebody that deviated from the standard of he baif your, which is not selling. this is a significant sale. it's the first time he's selling, first time the stock's been able to break through the $35 mark since mid 2008. >> ben, i'm hoping you can bottom line this. people are saying, what do i do with this information? is that, to you, a sell signal in the stock? >> yes, yes. it's a highly negative event. this is, you know, it's an important data point that you have to use in conjunction with other data points. so, if you are negative, you are looking for something to push you over the edge, this should push you over the edge. if you are positive on the stock, this should give you reason to be cautious. >> ben, thank you for joining us with that information. grasso, just quickly. do you use this information as ben said? >> no.
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>> no? >> well, you don't discount it totally, but the truth is, there's plenty of reasons why people sell stocks. there's only one reason why people buy. this could be a divorce, this could be tax reasons, this could be a whole host of reasons. butch you want to pay attention when insiders buy stocks. >> okay. well, we here want to clarify some comments from earlier today. our gary kaminski was critical of the berkshire hathaway purchase of a billion dollars of purchase, saying warren buffett never believed in buy-backs and suggested it may have been motivated to take advantage of lower tax rates this year. mr. buffett was watching, responding with a letter, taking issue with both of these points. and mr. buffett is nothing but meticulous. he said that it's not true that he never supports stock repurr chases. he highlighted a 1984 annual report where he states there is good reason for share repurchases under certain conditions. he's repeated that position, including in this year's annual letter to shareholders.
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now, regarding the timing of the sale and possible tax reasons for doing so, mr. buffett says estates received a stepped up basis upon death and therefore the estate did not have a gain regardless of when the stock was sold. we thank mr. buffett for watching and setting us straight. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. [ male announcer ] you build a reputation by not breaking down. consider the silverado 1500 -- still the most dependable, longest-lasting full-size pickups on the road. and now we've also been recognized for lowest total cost of ownership --
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i really think that consumers are taking a we're going to wait and see approach. i think it's something to talk about and really think it's going to get solved and think no way is it going to stop them from doing the end of the year holiday entertaining in restaurants. >> that was union square hospitality ceo danny meyer last night on "fast money," discussing the impact of the fiscal cliff on high end restaurants. luxury real estate is feeling it, as well. $1 million or more have been surging, up 23% from 2011. but prices of those homes have fallen, so, what's behind that decrease? some people are calling it out there the mansion cliff. fear of higher taxes causing owners to accept lower offers they'd previously rejected just to get a deal done before year end. joining us now is dolly lynn.
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always great to have you on. >> thank you for having me. >> how busy it is this year? >> it is so busy that literally last night, i was in a wine cellar, counting bottles at 1:20 a.m. to prepare the apartment for delivery this morning. >> but we had fun, though. >> we had fun. we didn't get to drink any of it. >> it was a good night. >> yes, yes. no vacations, no fun, but we expect to have fun next year when it's a little slower. >> people are telling you, we want to get this deal done because we're worried about taxes? >> buyers are coming to me, saying, listen. you tell the seller, i will close this year, give me x amount off, they save taxes, i save money, win-win, let's do it. and they are doing it. >> are the buyers, the foreign market -- the buyers in the market seem to be foreigners, at least in the high end that have a lot of cash flow. are these the ones that are taking advantage of this move? >> the americans are the ones taking advantage of this move. it's not the foreigners. the foreigners are buying new that's not deliver rabble today
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for the most part. >> interesting. >> oh, i see. and are most of the sales, are they vacation homes? second or third homes? >> second, third, fifth, eighth -- >> not their primary residences? >> a couple. but people see this als an opportunity. >> does this change the market at all? >> no, because these things have been on the market a long time. so, it's just a buyers market for this short market. i would say that 40-day window and that's it. and then we'll see what happens. >> at the same time, is there any he is t hesitancy on the part of buyers to buy in the face of the fiscal cliff though the sellers want to sell? >> if we go over the cliff and we don't solve that quickly, all bets are off. i'm very bullish on the market, other than the fiscal cliff discussion. it's a disaster. >> are we higher real estate next year versus this year? >> are we higher price wise or buying was? >> price wise, higher.
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buying was, lower. no financing available for new construction. >> why are banks so reluctant to finance new construction? >> they want to know that the building is solid. >> they have higher thresholds. it's almost like a chicken and egg problem. >> exactly. >> aside from the new building, are banks not a factor in the luxury part, because you have buyers that have great balance sheets, so, they are not really the ones that are having trouble getting loans right now. >> they still want to finance. it's still a problem. they still want to finance. they want to have some cash. there's still that catch hoarding going on. >> i mean, if you could borrow at 3.5%, why wouldn't you borrow at 3.5%? >> and you talk to guys on wall street, you know, i think are pretty smart and fwips that are plugged into the mortgage business, they are buying real else state right now and that's interesting. they can have access to capital and they are making a move that they wouldn't have made two years ago. rates were only 50 byes higher but they are doing it now. >> and they think -- they told
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me that the curve is going that way. they are looking to get in now while the curve is at the bottom. >> dolly, thank you for coming by. >> thank you. >> dolly lenz. time not for pops and drops. the big move erps of the day you might have missed. drop for phillips 66. guy? >> the stock has been a monster. i ci i still think it's a monster. every so often this name has been an opportunity, this is another one. >> pop for google, up 1%. >> finally back above that $700 mark. i've been long the name. i got long the name below $700. i'm staying long. google fiber is going to be a huge event. they're testing it in kansas city. they're bundling packages with cablevision -- i'm sorry. they are bundling packages with cable tv and internet service. much quicker than the cable internet service. >> is it going to be huge or huge? >> both. >> okay. >> depends on where you're from. >> boys.
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all right. pop for jcpenney. a huge move, anthony. >> listen, this is the classic short squeeze. one of the worst performing stocks year to date. i expect this thing to get a little higher. >> drop for copper, down 1%. tim? >> not a huge move. >> huge or huge? >> semi-huge move. people are blaming the fiscal cliff. i would just call it lme inventorie inventories, which are very high and major resistant to copper at a time when we don't know if there's real sustained demand. >> pop for sam, boston beer, up 15%. mike? >> this is an example of a good company, but not a good stock. yesterday, after the close, they raised their full year eps forecast to between $4.30 and $4.60 a share. here's the thing, though. 10% top line growth and consistent, about 11% margins doesn't mean the stock is worth 31 times earnings, so, i wouldn't be a buyer here. >> all right, and finally, a pop for 12/12/12. >> oh, yeah. >> as mick jagger put it, last night's benefit concert included the largest collection of old
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english musicians ever assemb assembled. producers of the concert, which lasted nearly six hours -- >> awesome. >> said it went out to as many as 2 billion people. can you imagine? more than all of china watching this. >> amazing. >> rock fans around the world were able to watch roger dalt y daltrey, bruce springsteen jam at msg. great concert. >> congratulations. what a phenomenal job. the question, really, what was kanye west wearing? was that a leather tennis skirt or -- guy? what are you thinking? >> thought it was very stylish. a lot of people on twitter saying the same thing. i have one at home. >> i know you're a big kanye west fan. >> i'm going to wear that with my meggings. as it turns out -- we have exclusive footage. >> of course you like it. >> with the meggings. you don't want to go bare legs. >> of course not. not this time of year. i'll be wearing this later. >> guy, people are going to be
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looking for your trainer now. they want to know who made those legs so good. >> all right. let's go out to jane, she's got a look at what's coming up next. >> you know what goes with meggings? this sweater. up next, we're going to talk about, do americans know what the fiscal cliff is, are they concerned about it, are they able to rise above and what are they buying? after the break. can i help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out.
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you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office.
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any time there's a lot of talk about what the future may hold for government, for taxation, for financing, that's going to give some people some trepidation about spending. overall, if the consumer is not certain she has a disposable income, perhaps she holds back a little bit. >> that was william lauder talking about the effect of if fiscal cliff on consumers. jane wells is deking deeper into the consumer story, joining us now from a mall in california. my, how glittery that swelter is, jane. >> you nope what it's like? did you ever see "total recall," where the guy opens up his coat and he's hosting another being in his gut. >> exactly like that. >> you can't really tell, it's
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lit up. but back to the consumer which is not buying this. walmart's ceo said 15% of his core customers say all this debate over the deficit is inpacts their shopping and, in fact, concerns over the fiscal cliff, awareness of it has skyrocketed since the election. if you remember, last month, when we asked around, hardly anybody even knew what the fiscal cliff was. listen. >> do you know what the fiscal cliff is? >> good question. don't have a good answer for that. >> fiscal clip? >> cliff. >> oh. >> what is the fiscal cliff? >> i have no idea. >> all right, one month later, nearly everyone knows what it is. nearly. >> are you concerned about this so-called fiscal cliff? >> ah, no, i'm not actually. i think that they will fix it and i'm a positive person. >> i am not concerned about the fiscal cliff. >> how come?
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>> because right now i'm concerned about getting the right gift for my mom? >> i still have people and friends, very close friends, out of work, underemployed, so, i, yeah, of course i'm concerned about it, yeah. >> do you know what the fiscal cliff is, ashley? >> i do, but i don't know enough about it tos be concerned or have an opinion on it so i'd rather just worry about my christmas gifts. >> all right, she gave me an honest answer. bull regardless of knowledge, people are increasing their spending, everyone from piper afterree to the consumer federation said people are spending more this holiday and we are hearing from shoppers here that cliff or no cliff, they are most all telling me they think the economy is, quote, getting a little better. what are they buying? after buying electronics on black friday, shoppers are moving onto basics, like children's apparent and videogames. back in the fall, 38% of those parents said they delayed some back to school purr chases to the holidays. three months later, 91% of that group has done exactly that.
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again, this is on nobody's list, but as promised, melissa, i'm wearing an ugly swelter today to raise money for stand up to cancer. great organization. find out what this is all about and what the organization is all about on my blog, funnybusiness.cnbc.com. back to you. >> can you guys believe that jane was wearing another sweater earlier today, which i think was actually uglier -- >> it's here. we still have it. >> hold on. >> jane, just ordered that sweater on amazon. i want you to know. i'll be wearing it tomorrow. >> i have it. >> sideways santa. >> i'm thinking i can auction these off, because now that i've worn them, and make more money for stand up to cancer. i'm sure you would bid a lot of money for that. >> well, we do hope you raise a lot of money for that cause, very worthy cause. jane, thank you. >> that sweater actually looked great with your leather tennis dress that you and kanye west wear. >> if jane wants to grab dinner, i'm game. >> wearing the sweater. >> yes. that would be awesome. that would be awesome. >> wow. >> wear that in new york city.
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see the locks you'll get. let's trade retail because it's funny. all the things jane said people are spending their money on, those are not the retailers you want to be in, electronics, children's apparel? >> i think walmart is the one you want to be in. one, because first of all, this stock is right around a level at 200 where it is bouncing and on a valuation where you can own it. walmart is a place that is doing their west to grow an emerging market. they announced they're going to have 100 new stores in china. a big deal in turkey. this is a global company and an emerging market. i like walmart right here on the chart. >> mike, where do you go in retail? >> well, the luxury names, closing trade yesterday to sell saks. i don't like tiffany. so, i guess i'm just a grinch when it comes to the luxury goods. >> ba-humbug. >> ashley, that she interviewed there, good for ashley, she's looking to buy a gift for her mom. she wasn't paying cash. probably paying with her mom's credit card. >> how do you know? >> i know.
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i believe that i know. >> very conscientious young woman who is earning her own money. >> giving ashley a takedown for no reason. >> get her on the web cam. mastercard and visa. they are massive. will continue to be. coming up next, tomorrow is d-day for special dividends. and grasso has a very special trade school for what it means for your bottom line. more "fast money" coming up next.
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let's play a little game we like to call the good, the bad and the ugly with our very own ambassador, tim seymour. first, the good. a couple weeks back, tim was climbing onto the green mountain tree. take a listen. >> surging k-cup sales, fourth quarter fiscal that beat, beat by a lot and these guys are definitely going higher. this is a stock not for the weak of heart. i think you can ride it. >> you can ride it. certainly could. shares of green mountain have heated up since then, popping 38%. tim? keep riding it? >> i would definitely keep riding it if only because i think if you look what starbucks is doing and the growth they're seeing, this is going to drive green mountain. it's a stock that was played for death by many people and i still think short's in the name. >> now onto the bad.
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back in october, tim was digging around for a play in newmont mining. here's what he said. >> digging around. very good. >> the headline is worse than the reality. there's tension in ghana, where they have significant assets. but this is the best div player, one of the best. stay with this name and actually the weakness of south africa is overdone. >> well, nine while, it has dropped about 20% since then, so, what do you do, tim? >> well, so ghana wasn't a risk but the entire sector was certainly a risk and miners have been clubbed. they changed early ceos, strategy is more or less intact. they are divesting bad assets. they are about returning cash to shareholders. those are reasons to stay in the stock. i think it's very, very cheap here. miners have been a tough call but i would our gold miners here. >> gold or gold miners here? >> gold, gold. it's been harpd, we say it. very difficult but -- now wait a second. >> what? >> what is this segment called?
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it's called, what? the good, the bad and the ugly. where's the -- >> here it comes. here it comes. >> i can only imagine. >> there it is. >> what's ugly about that? >> it's worth another look. >> do we really need to explain that? >> look at the thighs on that guy. man, oh man. beef cake right there. >> you see that suzanne somers thing. thigh master. >> thigh master? >> what is that? >> a guy master. coming up in the next hour, cramer talks to the ceo of brigs and stratton. then, could shares of the gap be ready to gap back up or will hefty gains for the year make it a victim of the cliff? plus, a check of the charts. it's all coming up, top of the hour. got your first look tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. well, if it isn't mr. margin.
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mr. margin? don't be modest, bob. you found a better way to pack a bowling ball. that was ups. and who called ups? you did, bob. i just asked a question. it takes a long time to pack a bowling ball. the last guy pitched more ball packers. but you... you consulted ups. you found a better way. that's logistics. that's margin. find out what else ups knows. i'll do that. you're on a roll. that's funny. i wasn't being funny, bob. i know. and i'm here to tell homeowners that are 62 and older about a great way to live a better retirement. it's called a reverse mortgage. [ male announcer ] call right now to receive your free dvd and booklet with no obligation. it answers questions like how a reverse mortgage works, how much you qualify for, the ways to receive your money, and more. plus, when you call now, you'll get this magnifier with l.e.d. light
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music is a universal language. but when i was in an accident... i was worried the health care system spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. information on my phone. connection to doctors who get where i'm from. and tools to estimate what my care may cost. so i never missed a beat. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. mike? >> tim? we told you to buy rsx. sell and take profits. we are sure. >> guy? >> i don't advocate dining there because we want to be the health conscious show here at fast money, b

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